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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
24h volume$44.1K
Total volume$43.3M
Liquidity$767.6K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting orders2.5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes2.5%
No97.6%
- Liquidity
- $804.7K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 2.4¢ / 2.5¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Within research coverage.
Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 2:50:29 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.