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Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$7.3K
Liquidity$114.9
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?Accepting ordersMarket odds4.8%
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Yes4.8%Polymarket estimate
No95.2%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $114.9
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 2.8¢ / 6.8¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries. Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock. Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.