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Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
24h volume$66.7
Total volume$197.9K
Liquidity$7.9K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting orders1.3%
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Yes1.3%
No98.8%
- Liquidity
- $8.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.9¢ / 1.6¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 2:47:55 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.