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Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$32.1K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCAug 22, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Aug 22, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.5¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden calls someone by an incorrect name or references the wrong person at any point during his main keynote speech during the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Biden will be considered to have gotten a name wrong if he addresses or refers to an individual using a name that is not their correct or commonly known name. This includes, but is not limited to, using a wrong first or last name, a nickname which is not associated with the person, or any mispronunciation that significantly alters the intended name (e.g. when Biden referred to Rishi Sunak as ‘Mr. Sanook’ this would qualify for a “Yes” see:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qm9IjiwJxAo). If Biden says a person's name correctly but associates it with incorrect events or a different identity, this will also be sufficient to resolve the market to "Yes" (e.g. Biden says Andrew Tate is the current President of France). If Biden corrects himself after using an incorrect name, it will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. However, if Biden begins correcting the name before he has completed saying the incorrect name, and completes a full pronunciation correctly, it will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Biden does not give a keynote speech before the end of the DNC, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video footage of the speech.