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Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$18.5K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2023
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 30, 2023
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by November 30, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The major Iranian oil refineries considered for this market are: Abadan Refinery Isfahan Refinery Arak Refinery Bandar Abbas Refinery Tehran Refinery The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and/or Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.