Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

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Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$31.1

Total volume$187.9K

Liquidity$14.2K

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds16.5%

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Yes16.5%Polymarket estimate

No83.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $14.1K
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 16.0¢ / 17.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.