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Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volume$56.9
Total volume$99.7K
Liquidity$304.1
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2028
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?Accepting ordersMarket odds15%
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Yes15%Polymarket estimate
No85%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $304.1
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2028
- Yes bid / ask
- 12.0¢ / 18.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.