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Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volume$2K
Total volume$318.7K
Liquidity$72.7K
Event end date · UTCOct 20, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting ordersMarket odds3.4%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Yes3.4%Polymarket estimate
No96.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $74.6K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 20, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 3.3¢ / 3.4¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 8:08:40 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.