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Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
View a sample AI report This event is outside current AI coverage.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$698.2K
Liquidity$7.1
Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
3 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31ClosedMarket odds0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2023
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
AI research not covered
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon detonates anywhere in the world between May 22, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.