Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in November?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

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24h volume$0

Total volume$1.4K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2023

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in November?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $489.6
Deadline · UTC: Nov 30, 2023
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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This market is closed or awaiting resolution.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between November 1 and November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.