Who will win the debate according to polls?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$1.6M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 24, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Who will win the debate according to polls?

Kamala100%Polymarket estimate

Trump0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 24, 2024
Kamala bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Ipsos/538's opinion poll indicates Kamala Harris won the ABC-hosted debate against Donald Trump scheduled for September 10, 2024. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Ipsos/538 opinion poll indicates Donald Trump won. If the results are tied, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the Ipsos/538 release will not be considered for this market. If this debate is cancelled, otherwise rescheduled, or does not take place by September 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos/538 does not release a poll within a week of the debate (currently September 17, 11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve based on polls from YouGov. If YouGov also hasn't released a poll within a week of the debate, this market will resolve to "50-50".