
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 11:03:33 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.