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Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$44.3M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCOct 8, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
16 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Craig Wright ClosedMarket odds0%
Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 15, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the HBO documentary" Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" currently scheduled to air on October 8, identifies Craig Wright as the primary creator of Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If Craig Wright and another individual(s) are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "No". If the documentary is not released by October 15, this market will resolve to "No".