Who will gain more in polls after the debate?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$176.1K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 17, 2024

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Who will gain more in polls after the debate?

Kamala100%Polymarket estimate

Trump0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 17, 2024
Kamala bid / ask: 99.1¢ / 99.9¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market is on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will gain more in the polls one week after the presidential debate, scheduled for September 10, 2024. The resolution will be based on the Fivethirtyeight daily polling averages chart labeled "Trump vs. Harris", available at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national. The market will resolve according to the Fivethirtyeight polling average data points for Trump and Harris for September 10, compared with the polling average data points for Trump and Harris on September 17th, once Fivethirtyeight has published data points for September 18th. If Kamala's polling average increases more/decreases less than Trump's, the market will resolve to "Kamala". If Trump's polling average increases more/decreases less than Harris's, the market will resolve to "Trump". If both candidates' polling averages increase/decrease by the same amount, the market will resolve to 50-50. If the presidential debate is canceled, postponed beyond September 10, 2024 ET, or otherwise does not take place on September 10, the market will resolve to 50-50.