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Who will advance to 2026 Paris municipal election 2nd round?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volumeUnavailable
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMar 15, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Emmanuel GrégoireClosedMarket odds100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 15, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Municipal elections are scheduled to be held in Paris on March 15, 2026, with a potential second round on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed candidate’s list advances from the first round to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market refers solely to the citywide Council of Paris list vote and not to votes cast for arrondissement lists. A candidate’s list will be considered to have advanced only if a list in the second round is headed by the listed candidate. If a first-round list withdraws and merges into another list and the listed candidate is not the lead candidate of the resulting second-round list, it will not be considered to have advanced for the purposes of this market. If no second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is held, this market will resolve to “No”. If the lists for the second round of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).