Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$224.3K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJul 19, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday?

Biden0%Polymarket estimate

Trump100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jul 19, 2024
Biden bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 19 as soon as datapoints for July 20 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 20 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 19 are available by July 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 19. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.