Who will 538 predict to win the election?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$475.3K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 5, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Who will 538 predict to win the election?

Harris100%Polymarket estimate

Trump0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 5, 2024
Harris bid / ask: 99.8¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Harris" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election . This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100")