Loading your workspace…
All markets
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
Choose a market to analyze 17 eligible questions · Evidence required
24h volume$1.9K
Total volume$84K
Liquidity$292.6K
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
18 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
TexasAccepting ordersMarket odds74.5%
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Yes74.5%Polymarket estimate
No25.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $23.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 74.0¢ / 75.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.