Which parties will lose seats in Japanese snap election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

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Deadline · UTC

Feb 8, 2026

Yes bid / ask

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Resolution rules

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese snap election, which may differ from the number of seats won in the previous general election. If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).