Loading your workspace…
All markets
Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 8 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$41.3
Total volume$17.8K
Liquidity$68.7K
Event end date · UTCSep 21, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
CDUDeadline passedMarket odds1.7%
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
Yes1.7%Polymarket estimate
No98.3%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $11.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Sep 21, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.1¢ / 2.3¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.