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Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
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24h volume$787.7
Total volume$12.9K
Liquidity$118.5K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2028
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
12 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Gavin NewsomAccepting ordersMarket odds16.2%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?
Yes16.2%Polymarket estimate
No83.8%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $14.4K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2029
- Yes bid / ask
- 16.1¢ / 16.3¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.