Which film will win Best Picture at the 2021 Oscars?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volume$0

Total volume$7K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCApr 25, 2021

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Which film will win Best Picture at the 2021 Oscars?ClosedMarket odds>99.9%

Which film will win Best Picture at the 2021 Oscars?

Nomadland>99.9%Polymarket estimate

The Trial of the Chicago 7<0.01%Polymarket estimate

Minari<0.01%Polymarket estimate

Promising Young Woman<0.01%Polymarket estimate

Other<0.01%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $500
Deadline · UTC: Apr 25, 2021
Nomadland bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This is a market on which film will win the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 93rd Academy Awards (“Oscars”), scheduled to take place on Sunday April 25, 2021. This market will resolve to whichever bracket contains the film which is announced as the winner in the Best Picture category at the 93rd Academy Awards. The market will resolve to “Other” if any of the following films win Best Picture: Mank, Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, or The Father. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards, and if necessary, the Oscars website (https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2021) and award database (http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/). If for any reason the Oscars are delayed or the announcement of a winner is delayed, market resolution will be delayed until a Best Picture winner is announced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).