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Which Dems will underperform Kamala?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 9 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$681.4
Total volume$7.2K
Liquidity$57.9K
Event end date · UTCNov 3, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Chris Pappas: NH-SenAccepting ordersMarket odds28%
Will Chris Pappas underperform Kamala in New Hampshire?
Yes28%Polymarket estimate
No72%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $20.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 3, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 26.0¢ / 30.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If a candidate's vote share is identical to that of Kamala Harris, this market will resolve to "No". In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, or a candidate withdraws from the race in a manner that causes them to be permanently removed from the general election ballot, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.