
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 6:30:05 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.