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Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
Choose a market to analyze 14 eligible questions · Evidence required
24h volume$1.7K
Total volume$822.9K
Liquidity$382.5K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
16 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
North KoreaAccepting ordersMarket odds3.4%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?
Yes3.4%Polymarket estimate
No96.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $28.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 3.3¢ / 3.4¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.