Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
32 markets
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
PSDAccepting ordersMarket odds4.3%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?
Yes4.3%Polymarket estimate
No95.8%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$717
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
1.2¢ / 7.3¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNLAccepting ordersMarket odds3.4%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL?
Yes3.4%Polymarket estimate
No96.6%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$950.5
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.4¢ / 6.4¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
USRAccepting ordersMarket odds1.2%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR?
Yes1.2%Polymarket estimate
No98.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.6K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 2.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds2.4%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR?
Yes2.4%Polymarket estimate
No97.7%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$11.5K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.7¢ / 4.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
AURAccepting ordersMarket odds1.1%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include AUR?
Yes1.1%Polymarket estimate
No98.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$11K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.6¢ / 1.6¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + PNLAccepting ordersMarket odds6.4%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL?
Yes6.4%Polymarket estimate
No93.6%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$1.2K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
1.8¢ / 11.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + USRAccepting ordersMarket odds2.2%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + USR?
Yes2.2%Polymarket estimate
No97.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.3K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 4.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds11.9%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR?
Yes11.9%Polymarket estimate
No88.2%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$14.2K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
11.8¢ / 11.9¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds0.65%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + AUR?
Yes0.65%Polymarket estimate
No99.4%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.7K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.2¢ / 1.1¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNL + USRAccepting ordersMarket odds5.3%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR?
Yes5.3%Polymarket estimate
No94.7%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$768.4
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 10.3¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNL + UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds2.2%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + UDMR?
Yes2.2%Polymarket estimate
No97.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.2K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 4.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNL + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds1.3%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + AUR?
Yes1.3%Polymarket estimate
No98.7%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.4K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.6¢ / 2.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
USR + UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds0.55%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR?
Yes0.55%Polymarket estimate
No99.5%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.6K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.2¢ / 0.9¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
USR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds0.9%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + AUR?
Yes0.9%Polymarket estimate
No99.1%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.4K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 1.5¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
UDMR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds2.2%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR + AUR?
Yes2.2%Polymarket estimate
No97.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.4K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 4.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + PNL + USRAccepting ordersMarket odds5.6%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + USR?
Yes5.6%Polymarket estimate
No94.5%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$755.1
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
2.1¢ / 9.0¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + PNL + UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds14.7%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR?
Yes14.7%Polymarket estimate
No85.4%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$16.5K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
14.6¢ / 14.7¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + PNL + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds3.6%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + AUR?
Yes3.6%Polymarket estimate
No96.4%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$524.6
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 6.9¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + USR + UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds4.8%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + USR + UDMR?
Yes4.8%Polymarket estimate
No95.3%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$709.6
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.6¢ / 8.9¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + USR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds0.75%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + USR + AUR?
Yes0.75%Polymarket estimate
No99.3%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.3K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.2¢ / 1.3¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PSD + UDMR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds1.1%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR + AUR?
Yes1.1%Polymarket estimate
No98.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.2K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 1.9¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNL + USR + UDMRAccepting ordersMarket odds4.1%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR + UDMR?
Yes4.1%Polymarket estimate
No95.9%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$528.2
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
1.1¢ / 7.1¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNL + USR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds1%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR + AUR?
Yes1%Polymarket estimate
No99%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.3K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 1.7¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
PNL + UDMR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds1.4%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + UDMR + AUR?
Yes1.4%Polymarket estimate
No98.6%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.5K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.4¢ / 2.4¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
USR + UDMR + AURAccepting ordersMarket odds1.1%
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR + AUR?
Yes1.1%Polymarket estimate
No99%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$10.4K
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.2¢ / 1.9¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
OtherAccepting ordersMarket odds3.3%
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania?
Yes3.3%Polymarket estimate
No96.8%Polymarket estimate
Liquidity
$870.8
Deadline · UTC
Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask
0.3¢ / 6.2¢
Trading fees
Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 9:38:04 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
