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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
View a sample AI report This event is outside current AI coverage.
24h volume$1.9K
Total volume$3.6M
Liquidity$279.4K
Event end date · UTCMar 2, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
1Accepting ordersMarket odds72.5%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Yes72.5%Polymarket estimate
No27.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $19.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 2, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 72.0¢ / 73.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
AI research not covered
Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.