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When will the first eaglet hatch?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$290.3K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCApr 16, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
15 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
April 3ClosedMarket odds0%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 3, 2026?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 16, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The Great Lakes Bald Eagle Cam (Cam 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMW-S6ZoYgY, Cam 2: https://www.youtube.com/live/rWQEKZGcius) displays a livestream of a wild Bald Eagle nest in Traverse City, Michigan, with three incubating eggs. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which the first eaglet hatches in this nest. “Hatch” is defined as the first moment an eaglet is visibly fully emerged from its shell. A pip (first shell crack) or partial emergence will not qualify. If no eaglet hatches by April 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Hatch before April 17”. The timing of a qualifying hatch will be determined based on the live timestamps available on the Great Lakes Bald Eagle Cam livestreams. The resolution sources for this market will be the Great Lakes Bald Eagle Cam livestream of the nest in Traverse City, Michigan, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMW-S6ZoYgY & https://www.youtube.com/live/rWQEKZGcius. This market will resolve solely based on qualifying hatches verified through the livestreams. If both livestreams are unavailable due to an outage or other technical issue, and either stream later returns to show that a qualifying hatch occurred while they were down, this market will resolve to the calendar date (ET) on which the livestream returns. If both livestreams remain unavailable through April 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Hatch before April 17,” regardless of whether a qualifying hatch occurred while the livestreams were unavailable. All proceeds from this market will be donated to the American Bald Eagle Foundation (https://baldeagles.org/). Tampering with a bald eagle nest, eggs, or eaglets is a federal crime under the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act (16 U.S.C. § 668). Penalties include up to $100,000 in fines and one year imprisonment for a first offense. Polymarket will cooperate fully with law enforcement in any investigation of nest interference. Polymarket reserves the right to void any market if there is credible evidence of coordinated manipulation or external interference with the nest.