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When will GPT-5 be announced?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.4M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 30, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Q2ClosedMarket odds0%
GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jun 30, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.