
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
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This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word “beautiful" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "beautiful" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to something which is pleasing to the senses or aesthetically delightful. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word “crazy" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "crazy" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to behavior which extremely irrational, unpredictable, or mentally unstable. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word “Border" 3 or more times on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Each usage of the word will count as a mention, even if used multiple times in a single post. Compound words will count as long as "Border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the dividing line or edge between two areas. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the phrase “comrade Kamala" 3 or more times on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Each usage of the word will count as a mention, even if used multiple times in a single post. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word “crypto" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Crypto" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrencies. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word "Bitcoin" or "BTC" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Bitcoin" or "BTC" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "Bitcoin-related" counts). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the phrase "unrealized gains" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word “Black" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Black" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person's race. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: Hashtags will count (e.g. #Black). Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word “Tax" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a mandatory financial charge imposed by a government. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word "laugh" or "laughing" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "laugh" or "laughing" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a spontaneous sound expressing amusement or joy. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the word "communist" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "communist" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a advocate of a classless society with collective ownership. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksOn August 22, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would doing “a LIVE PLAY BY PLAY on TRUTH Social of Comrade Kamala Harris’ Speech tonight” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113006326768388905). This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts the phrase "Sleepy Joe" on Truth Social, Between August 22, 10:00 PM ET and August 23 2:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count. Pluralizations/possessives of the word as well as variance in letter capitalizations will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the word will NOT count. The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Note: The word will count even if it is preceded by a hashtag and appears without a space (e.g., "#TaxDay2024" would count for "tax").
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 3:13:32 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.