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What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 5 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$0.5
Total volume$62.7K
Liquidity$10.6K
Event end date · UTCApr 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Under 1.5Accepting ordersMarket odds0.2%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?
Yes0.2%Polymarket estimate
No99.8%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.4¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.