What will be the next Fed rate change?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$27.5K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2028

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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What will be the next Fed rate change?ClosedMarket odds100%

What will be the next Fed rate change?

Hike100%Polymarket estimate

Cut0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2028
Hike bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm