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What will be in the UK Budget?
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Choose a market to analyze 4 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$417.1
Total volume$4.9K
Liquidity$1.2K
Event end date · UTCOct 29, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Wealth taxAccepting ordersMarket odds9.5%
Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?
Yes9.5%Polymarket estimate
No90.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $471.8
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 29, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 9.0¢ / 10.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows: - Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets. - Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home. - Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty. - CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax. A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count. For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase. If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.