Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$44.3K

Liquidity$18.2K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds5.4%

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Yes5.4%Polymarket estimate

No94.6%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $18.2K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 4.4¢ / 6.4¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.