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Virginia Governor Election Abigail Spanberger margin of victory?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.8M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<6%ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Spanberger’s certified statewide vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes) in the certified results. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Abigail Spanberger does not receive the most votes statewide in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the Virginia Department of Elections (Virginia State Board of Elections). If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.