Venezuela opposition leader Machado released by Monday?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$20.7K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJan 13, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Venezuela opposition leader Machado released by Monday?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jan 13, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 98.7¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On January 9, Maria Corina Machado was arrested while leaving a protest march, according to local media and party officials (see: https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-opposition-leader-machado-arrested/a-71260151). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maria Corina Machado is released from custody by January 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Machado is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Machado is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes." Transporting Machado to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.