US x Iran ceasefire before July?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$347.8K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

US x Iran ceasefire before July?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 0.1¢ / 0.2¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.