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US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 8 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$24.9K
Liquidity$3.1K
Event end date · UTCMay 1, 2027
Price history
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Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<500BAccepting ordersMarket odds3.5%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
Yes3.5%Polymarket estimate
No96.6%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $274.2
- Deadline · UTC
- May 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 2.0¢ / 4.9¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.