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US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$66.7K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCFeb 28, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
February 28ClosedMarket odds100%
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 28, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
On February 22nd, 2026, the US mission to Mexico issued a security alert advising US citizens in Jalisco State (among other areas) to shelter in place (see: https://mx.usembassy.gov/security-alert-ongoing-security-operations-u-s-mission-mexico-february-22-2026/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if US citizens throughout the state of Jalisco are no longer advised to shelter in place by the US Government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the cessation of US government “shelter in place” advice to US citizens throughout the entirety of the State of Jalisco will qualify. Revisions to shelter in place guidance which keep shelter-in-place guidance in place for parts of Jalisco will not count. If the previously referenced alert is revised or replaced with another security alert or other US government guidance that continues US advice to citizens to shelter in place in any part of Jalisco, this will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Shelter in place advice includes any alert or guidance with that explicit wording or equivalent language (i.e. “stay indoors”, etc.). US State Department ‘Do Not Travel’ guidance will not be considered advice to shelter in place. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.