US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

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24h volume$20.1

Total volume$639K

Liquidity$25.5K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds3.8%

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Yes3.8%Polymarket estimate

No96.2%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $25.5K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 3.7¢ / 3.9¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.