U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

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24h volume$1

Total volume$179.8K

Liquidity$21.5K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds2.6%

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

Yes2.6%Polymarket estimate

No97.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $21.5K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 2.5¢ / 2.6¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.