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U.S. recession before May 2025?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$858.5K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
U.S. recession before May 2025?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 30, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2024 or later, with the announcement made between September 25, 2024, and April 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 12:58:34 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.