US military draft authorized in 2026?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$673.7

Total volume$534.8K

Liquidity$38.3K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds3.6%

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Yes3.6%Polymarket estimate

No96.4%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $38.3K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 3.2¢ / 4.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.