U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$411.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCOct 1, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 1, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.