Loading your workspace…
All markets
Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$517.2K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 1, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 1, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2024. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for October 2024 is more than 4.1%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. The next data release is scheduled for November 1, 2024, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if unemployment is 4.2%, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 4.1%, this market will resolve to “No”).