Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$172.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJan 31, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jan 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On January 1, 2025, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline by declining to renew its transit agreement (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/world/europe/russia-ukraine-natural-gas-europe.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian government officially announces that it will allow the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory via any pipeline by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Announcements indicating approval or agreements for resumption, even if the physical flow of gas has not yet commenced. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Ukrainian government, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Ukraine is allowing the transit of Russian natural gas via pipeline through its territory will also qualify.