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Turnout in 2025 Portugal Presidential Election First Round
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$122.1K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJan 18, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<34%ClosedMarket odds0%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 34%?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 18, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos” If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).