
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksNote: This market is about Donald Trump winning with exactly 270 electoral votes, with this specific configuration: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump+270.png. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump secures exactly 270 electoral votes in the 2024 United States Presidential Election by winning the following states and districts: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (30), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4 out of 5 electoral votes excluding Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District), North Carolina (16), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), Pennsylvania (19), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3). If Donald Trump does not win exactly these states and districts, thereby securing exactly 270 electoral votes, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered. The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (including AP, NBC, Fox) on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 11:37:48 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.