Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$255.8K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds50%

Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B

Trump50%Polymarket estimate

Boden50%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2024
Trump bid / ask: 50.0¢ / 51.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the crypto token which is first to reach 1,000,000,000.00 in fully diluted valuation or greater for five consecutive minutes between April 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Trump" if the FDV of $TRUMP achieves the resolution criteria before $boden. This market will resolve to "boden" if $boden achieves the resolution criteria before $TRUMP. If neither achieves the resolution criteria before this market's end date, it will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be 1 minute price candles for $TRUMP (https://dexscreener.com/ethereum/0xe4b8583ccb95b25737c016ac88e539d0605949e8) and $boden (https://dexscreener.com/solana/6uybx1x8yucfj8ystpyizbyg7uqzaq2s46zwphumkjg5), viewed by clicking Price and 1m on the top row of the chart. Specifically, five consecutive 1-minute price candles need to all have Low prices which, when multiplied by the total supply of $TRUMP and $boden, provide an FDV $1,000,000,000.00 or greater for this market to resolve in favor of one token or the other. If the five minute period starts at e.g. December 31, 11:58 PM ET to January 1, 12:02 AM ET, it will count for this market.