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Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$888.5K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 5, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 5, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.7¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
According to the CNN exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 12% of the Black vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's share of African American or Black voters is 13% or greater in 2024 US presidential election according to available exit polling information from CNN provided on their website as of November 6, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump drops out of the race at any point, or faces any extenuating circumstances that prevents him from continuing the race, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be exit polls from CNN. If CNN has not made exit poll information available online by this market's end time, this market will stay open until it has been released/published. If the exit poll information has not been published by November 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, exit polls from CBS will be used instead (data from the 2024 CBS exit poll will be compared to the 2020 CBS exit poll). This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered. Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.